01 / Macro · Policy
Policy, expectations and liquidity
Core view
If inflation and economic conditions permit a more accommodative policy path than markets expect, changes in real yields and financing conditions may support risk assets. We focus on outcomes relative to priced expectations, rather than the tone of policy statements alone.
Transmission mechanism
- Policy expectations change→
- Real yields and financing conditions adjust→
- Corporate financing and earnings expectations respond→
- Asset valuations are reassessed
What we monitor
- The interest-rate path implied by futures and changes in real yields
- Inflation and employment data
- The US dollar and credit spreads
- Corporate earnings revisions
When we would revise
We reassess if renewed inflation requires tighter policy, real yields rise persistently, or weaker earnings offset valuation support. Lower rates alone may provide limited support when business conditions deteriorate.
Portfolio implications
We evaluate policy and earnings together, avoid making the portfolio dependent on a single interest-rate forecast, and preserve liquidity as expectations change.
Research inputs
Selected official policy releases, reserve data and company disclosures for further reading.02 / Macro · Monetary assets
Distinct roles for gold and digital assets
Core view
Reserve diversification and changing perceptions of monetary credibility may support demand for gold and selected digital assets. Their demand drivers, volatility and behaviour under stress require separate assessment.
Transmission mechanism
- Reserve and investment preferences evolve→
- Demand for different assets changes→
- Prices and correlations respond→
- Portfolio roles are reviewed against observed behaviour
What we monitor
- Central-bank gold purchases and gold-fund flows
- Foreign-exchange reserve composition, allowing for currency effects
- Real yields and the US dollar
- Digital-asset flows and correlations with equities
When we would revise
We reassess if real yields and the dollar strengthen persistently, demand weakens, or behaviour during market stress conflicts with the intended portfolio role. Gold may also be sold during a liquidity shock.
Portfolio implications
We assess gold’s diversification potential separately from the growth and risk characteristics of digital assets. Bitcoin is not treated as a dependable safe-haven substitute; its volatility, gap risk and trading structure inform any allocation decision.
Research inputs
Selected official policy releases, reserve data and company disclosures for further reading.03 / Industry · Technology
AI: from infrastructure investment to cash returns
Core view
AI adoption and infrastructure investment may have further room to expand. We examine whether demand translates into durable revenue and cash returns, and whether supply-demand conditions in computing, memory, power and cooling can support corporate earnings.
Transmission mechanism
- Application demand and commercialisation develop→
- Infrastructure investment follows→
- Orders convert into deliveries and capacity→
- Revenue, margins and cash flow determine business returns
What we monitor
- Cloud capital expenditure, AI revenue and cash returns
- Order conversion, capacity investment and production yields
- Lead times, pricing and inventories
- Customer concentration, alternative technologies and valuation
When we would revise
We reassess if capital budgets fall, returns on investment deteriorate, capacity outpaces demand, or shorter lead times and lower prices coincide with rising inventories. Earnings growth that fails to support valuations is another reason to revise.
Portfolio implications
We compare opportunities across the value chain rather than assuming that industry growth benefits every related company. We also examine single-company concentration and overlapping technology exposure within broad equity indices.
Research inputs
Selected official policy releases, reserve data and company disclosures for further reading.